Three significant general elections will mark the second semester of 2024. Elections of September 29 in Austria are critical as the far-right party leads the polls, and there is the risk of forming and leading a coalition government that will alter Austria’s position in Europe. Bulgarians will vote on October 27 for the sixth time since 2021. The political parties cannot find a consensus to form a stable coalition government, while corruption in the country is rampant. Romania will hold elections on December 1, a month after its Presidential ones, testing the historical coalition government between Socialists and Conservatives and facing the attempt of the pro-Russian far-right parties to increase their votes. The results of the general elections and the referendum for EU membership in Moldova, which was a non-EU member, could impact the vote of Romanians in October.
The far-right parties will exploit the recent state elections in Thuringia and Saxonia, in which the extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the pro-Russian Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (SWB) increased their votes.
Russian interference in all these countries is active at various levels. Austria undoubtedly matters more to the Kremlin.
The Russian interference factor
In March 2024, Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ABW) revealed a suspected Russian spy network, following intelligence from the Czech Republic’s Security Information Service (BIS). The BIS uncovered a network used by Russia to funnel cash to politicians across the EU. Far-right parties in several EU countries were reportedly paid to push pro-Russian narratives to influence elections and weaken support for Ukraine. Additionally, the arrest of a former Austrian intelligence officer for spying for Russia raised national security concerns. Chancellor Karl Nehammer declared the need to prevent Russian spy networks from threatening Austria.
The rise of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), with its ties to Russia, has raised concerns about Russian intelligence targeting media and social platforms. The party has been spreading hate speech and was involved in the Ibiza scandal in May 2019, causing a government crisis and leading to snap elections in September of the same year. FPÖ has close ties with Putin’s regime, opposes EU sanctions on Russia, and promotes a neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict. This has drawn criticism, mainly as Austria hosts major international organizations.
Bulgaria has historically had friendly ties with Russia. According to former Bulgarian prime minister Nikolai Denkov, corruption in Bulgaria remains a significant channel for Russian interference and has contributed to the collapse of the ruling coalition. Denkov, who served as Prime Minister from June 6, 2023, to April 9, 2024, told the Financial Times that the cabinet he led for less than a year struggled to combat graft and deeply embedded ties to Moscow in the EU and NATO member country. Denkov stated, “A lot of the Russian influence in the past, particularly in the energy sector, came through corruption.” The far-right party Revival supports the Kremlin and opposes Bulgarian assistance for Kyiv.
Romania is a target for the Kremlin due to its proximity to Moldova, a former USSR member, and its role in providing energy to Europe. Despite its stable pro-EU and NATO commitments, two far-right irredentist parties have gained more votes in the past year. The Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), the bigger of them, secured 14.9% in the last European elections. The party advocates for the union of Romania with Moldova and harbours internal neo-fascist and extremist factions. There are allegations about AUR’s connections with the Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, who the US have sanctioned due to his ties with Moscow and his efforts to foment political unrest in Moldova. Interestingly, AUR is a pro-Ukraine European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group member. The SOS Romania party, a breakaway faction of AUR, also secured 5% of the vote in the European elections. These two parties are the primary sources of pro-Russia, anti-EU, and anti-Ukraine propaganda in Romania.
The Battle for Europe is in Austria
The last elections in 2019 gave the EPP member Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) a majority of 37.5%. On December 6, 2021, its leader, Karl Nehammer, became Chancellor in a coalition government with the Greens. However, the situation has changed dramatically since then. The far-right FPÖ, which arrived third in the 2019 elections, is now leading the polls with 28%, leaving behind the Christian Democrats (26%) and the Socialists (20%).
The constant rise of FPÖ, a founding member of the Patriots for Europe group, raises concerns about the future of the rule of law in the country and the creation of an anti-EU and pro-Russia camp in the central European region. Already, anti-EU and pro-Russian governments exist in Hungary and Slovakia, putting at risk the EU cohesion and security. As FPÖ is projected to be the first party after the September 29 elections, in case of a coalition government, it could demand the position of the Chancellor. As Chancellor, FPÖ’s leader Herbert Kickl, who often declared his admiration for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, will partner with Hungary and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, forming an “Axes” against the EU and in the service of Vladimir Putin. Moreover, Kickl repeatedly declared that he plans to implement Orbán’s programme. Thus, an FPÖ-led coalition government would add the region of another problem for the EU cohesion. We should also consider an eventual return of the populist ANO party in the Czech Republic, also a founding member of the far-right Patriots for Europe group, to power in the 2025 elections. Thus, a larger government coalition is needed, comprising the parties of the actual alliance, ÖVP and the Greens, and the Socialists and Liberals, to keep FPÖ out of government. Ninety-two seats are needed for a majority of the 183 seats of the National Council.
The biggest enemy of Bulgaria is corruption
Early parliamentary elections will be held in Bulgaria on October 27, 2024. The inability of the conservative and liberal parties to form a viable government leaves the country unprotected from corruption, keeps the economy in constant stagnation, and encourages rhetorics impacting the rule of law. As the far-right Revival, a founding member of the AfD-led Europe of Sovereign Nations group, emerged as a political force in Bulgaria in 2021 when it won seats in parliament for the first time, conservatives tried to adopt part of its programme. As a result, the conservative party GERB-SDS is preparing an anti-LGBTI law in an attempt to stop Revival’s rise.
According to August’s opinion polls the GERB–SDS coalition, an EPP member, has 22% support, while its former government partner We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) 14-15%. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), a party supported by the Turkish and other ethnic minorities and a partner in previous coalitions, has 14%h PP-DB and DPS are members of the Renew group in the European Parliament. Despite its rise in the European elections, the far-right doesn’t show similar growth as the polls indicate 12-15%.
If the parties fail again to form a viable government coalition, the risk to the Bulgarian economy and, to some extent, the rule of law is high.
A test for the “grand coalition” in Romania
Romania experienced a deep political crisis two years ago. It ended with a coalition experiment between the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the EPP-member National Liberal Party (PNL). A similar experiment involved Socialists and Christian Democrats in Portugal last March. Romania will hold parliamentary elections on December 1, 2024. Before that, Presidential elections will be held in Romania on November 24, 2024, with a second round on December 8 if no candidate receives an absolute majority of the vote.
These elections will be a test for the grant coalition government. According to August’s polls, the Social Democrats are leading with 30%, followed by their coalition partner PNL (18-22%). The United Right Alliance, led by the Renew member Save Romania Union (USR), receives 13%. However, the EPP-member Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), which participated in the coalition government until June 2023, seems to be in decline with less than 5%.
