No great expectations as European powers resume nuclear talks with Iran

Public Domain Author: United States Department of State
The ministers of foreign affairs and other officials from the P5+1 countries, the EU and Iran while announcing the framework of a Comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme, Écublens-Lausanne, Switzerland, 2 April 2015.

Days after France’s President Emmanuel Macron described Iran and its nuclear programme as the “main strategic security challenge” facing the European Union, representatives from Tehran and the “E3” grouping of the United Kingdom, France and Germany have assembled in Geneva to discuss Teheran’s nuclear programme. Hopes that this latest push by nuclear diplomacy for a breakthrough remained low-key despite the French warning that Iran’s uranium-enrichment drive is “nearing the point of no return”. 

The E3 group is made up of the European signatories that remain committed to the 2015 nuclear deal that offered Iran sanctions relief in exchange for internationally monitored proof that it was not producing fissile material of a quality that would enable it to manufacture a nuclear weapon. That pact became virtually moribund during the first term of Donald Trump‘s presidency when the U.S. withdrew and reimposed sanctions in 2018.  Now, with Trump’s return to the White House a week away, expectations are that his administration will again take a hard line on Iran and its nuclear programme.

Iran is currently believed to be nearing the point where it can produce uranium enrichment at weapons-grade levels. Last month, Germany, the U.K. and France voiced their “extreme concern”, urging Teheran “to immediately halt its nuclear escalation” after a report by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi that Iran was enriching uranium up to 60% purity (a 90% level is needed to produce a weapon). 

When President Macron declared that E.U. partners to the nuclear deal should consider reimposing sanctions in the event that Teheran failed to address their concerns, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei called his remarks “baseless” and “deceitful” and accused France of not adhering to its obligations under terms of the nuclear deal. Iran, he added, has always rejected claims that it is looking to produce nuclear weapons and has insisted that its nuclear activities are peaceful and “within the framework of international law”. 

According to Baghaei, the main aim of the Geneva meeting “is to remove the sanctions”, whereas the French Foreign Ministry maintains the intent is to find a “diplomatic solution” to the “problematic” nuclear issue. In December, when Iran and E3 representatives met behind closed-door talks, few details were offered. A month prior, the U.S., the U.K. and the E.U. had rejected an offer by Teheran to cap uranium enrichment at 60% and allow further inspections of nuclear facilities. Subsequently, the E3 filed a motion at the IAEA, demanding a “comprehensive” report confirming Iran’s compliance with the terms of the deal.

Iran could face a return of UN Security Council sanctions once the nuclear deal formally expires in October. The IAEA report would be the first step towards such an outcome. In his remarks last week, Macron asserted the E3 would have to assess the need “to restore sanctions.”  In a June 2024 statement responding to an IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear programme, the E3 said Iran’s continued nuclear development was “unprecedented” for a state without a nuclear weapons programme.

The statement also said that Iran had “significant” quantities of highly enriched uranium, “from which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded.” The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has tried to revive the deal and reportedly came close in 2022, but talks fell through, and negotiations since have gone nowhere.

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