In a press conference on July 3, Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU), told journalists that his party excludes coalition at the state or federal level with the far-right AfD.
Talking to ARD’s “Brennpunkt“ on Monday, the CDU leader rejected cooperation with the nationalist Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance. According to the polls, both AfD and BSW are on the rise in the East.
“That is absolutely clear; we have always said that. We do not work with such right-wing and left-wing extremist parties,“ emphasised Merz.
“I’m not going to move a millimetre on this issue,“ he stated.
Merz’s firm stance is not a surprise. The leader of Christian Democrats expressed similar views in 2023.
However, in the face of the three critical state elections in the East, on September 1 in Thuringia and Saxony and September 22 in Brandenburg, CDU will have to handle not only the rise of both the AfD and BSW but also eventual disagreements with the official party policy within CDU.
Merz also told journalists that he disagrees with some EPP parties that cooperate with the far right at a government level. He was also surprised to see France’s EPP-member Republicans ally with the far-right National Rally (RN) in the snap legislative elections.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged 2013 as an anti-Euro and pro-Exit conservative political force. However, it rapidly moved towards far-right and extremist positions, directly threatening the German republic’s institutions and the safety of its citizens. AfD’s recent scandal, the infamous “Remigration“ case, questioned the citizenship of thousands of Germans of foreign origin. The AfD had proven too radical even for the Marine Le Pen and the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which cut ties with it last month.
In 2021, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) put the party under surveillance, characterising it as an extremist. AfD is particularly strong in the areas of the former German People’s Republic (DDR), where the most extremist elements exist.
Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW also represents a problem in post-communist states because it moves rapidly towards far-right views to the extent that an eventual alliance between the party and AfD would not be a surprise.
A split of the Die Linke (the Left), BSW, has many far-right positions, mainly on migration issues, and supports Russia. As the European election results and recent polls indicate, BSW Sahra Wagenknecht’s split had a devastating effect on Die Linke.
Reacting to Merz’s statements, Wagenknecht told the German Press Agency in Berlin on Tuesday: “What Friedrich Merz is doing is political kindergarten and will further weaken the CDU in the East.“
The AfD comes first in the polls in all three states, making its exclusion from a coalition government difficult. Thus, the state elections in Saxonia, Thuringia, and Brandenburg are critical for Germany.
Black clouds over Thuringia
In Thuringia, the leader of the AfD is Björn Höcke, known for his ties with neo-Nazi circles and recently charged for using a Nazi slogan. The coalition government is led by Die Linke, which was first in the 2019 state elections with 31%. After the split, polls indicate that support for Die Linke dropped to 14%, while AfD (second with 23.4% in 2019) passed first with 30-31%. According to the polls, BSW may win 20%.
On the other hand, the parties of the democratic political spectrum, the CDU, third in 2019 with 21.7% and 21 seats in the State parliament (Landtag), keep their strength at 22%. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) drops from 8.2% to 7%. However, the other two potential allies, the Greens and the Liberals (FDP), will not reach enough votes to enter the Landtag.
The Landtag of Thuringia has 88 seats, and a 45+ is needed for a majority.
Moreover, Thuringia’s CDU top candidate, party, and parliamentary group leader, Mario Voigt, rejected Merz’s statement regarding his state, suggesting that Thuringians “want political change and first look at what specific issues concern people. Then, we discuss who we can work with to solve the problems together. We do what is right for the country.”
“Thuringia does not need advice from Berlin”, emphasised BSW’s leader.
Thus, the AfD potentially will have to deal with a “rebel“ local CDU and BSW.
Can Saxony resist?
State elections of 2019 in Saxony led to a coalition government between the Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens and the Social Democrats (SPD). AfD arrived at second place with 27.5% and played the role of the leading opposition. However, according to recent polls, the far-right party comes first with 30-32%. The partners of CDU (now estimated between 29-30%) will have half of their deputies as polls indicate both parties at 5-7%. In addition, the Left and the FDP are expected to remain out of the Landtag. BSW will reach 15%, according to the polls.
The Landtag of Saxony has 120 seats, and 61 seats are needed for a majority.
A critical situation also in Brandenburg
The elections in Brandenburg are also critical. The parties of the government coalition—SPD, CDU, and the Greens—are losing support, while AfD comes first in the polls with 29%. Moreover, only CDU would increase its strength from 15.6% in 2019 to 16.5%. Also, the non-coalition member Brandenburg United Civic Movements/Free Voters (BVB/DW) will pass from 5 to 5.5%. SPD drops from 26% to 16, the Greens from 10% to 5. The Left seems not to enter the Landtag, as polls indicate it passes from 10.7 to 3.5%, while BSW is at 17%.
