State elections in two eastern German states held on September 1 show a considerable rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the anti-migration and pro-Moscow Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice (BSW). In Thuringia, a stronghold of the extremist wing of the party whose leader is the neo-Nazi Björn Höcke, AfD won a large majority with 32,8%, raising demands of leading the next state’s coalition government. Sahra Wagenknecht‘s BSW, a new party resulting from the split of anti-immigration elements from Die Linke, arrived third with 15,8% following the conservative CDU (23.6%). Also, in Saxony, the far-right arrived second with 30.6% following CDU (31.9 %). BSW is the third party in the state with 11.8 %.
The results were described by a considerable part of the European media as a surprise, with some of them finding analogies with the first electoral victory of the Nazi Party in Thuringia in 1923. The Russian media haled the rise of both AfD and BSW, presenting the results as a turn page in the electoral history of Germany.
However, we should refrain from dramatising and overestimating these two victories’ meaning and potential effect. We should consider that the electoral results weren’t a surprise, as long ago polls indicated the rise of the far-right.
In the two states, only in Thuringia, AfD has the number of seats, allowing the far-right to make plans for a coalition. However, in both states, CDU leaders excluded the possibility of allying with the far-right. Moreover, Friedrich Merz, CDU’s chairman, excluded cooperating with the far-right party at any level in August 2023. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) has classified the AfD as potentially extremist since 2021 and keeps the party under surveillance. Partnering with it would mean disdain for institutions. BSW is the only party that potentially could ally with Björn Höcke in Thuringia, but such a relationship could damage its reputation. Moreover, it is questioned if such a coalition government would be viable. In a few words, AfD would face once more a cordon sanitaire imposed by the rest of the political forces.
There is no doubt that the rise of AfD is a problem for Germany. The citizens of the eastern German states feel neglected by federal policies concerning the economy, public services, and immigration issues. Thus, the results of the elections could reflect feelings related to low confidence in the state. AfD exploited, often with disinformation methods, every feeling of discomfort and disappointment of the eastern German citizens.
However, AfD’s victory in Thuringia also poses problems for the party’s leadership, as Höcke’s views and deeds constantly create issues, from the pending threat of party disbandment to the permanent rejection of other parties’ cooperation to its international isolation after its expulsion from Marine Le Pen‘s political group.
Thuringia and Saxony
Thuringia is a particular case, as it was the place where the Nazis got their first electoral break at the regional level in 2023. Of course, the fact that AfD has a blocking minority of one-third of the seats in the state parliament puts it in a position to cause certain disorders. However, any coalition with it entails severe risks.
Considering that 45 seats are needed for the majority in the state parliament, AfD has only one option to govern: with BSW. Such a partnership would have a weak majority of 47 seats, making the coalition government unstable.
Other options, including larger coalitions between the constitutional parties, could provide more significant majorities, such as a CDU-BSW-Linke-SPD with 56 seats or a CDU-BSW-Linke with 50.
In Saxony, the situation is different. There, the AfD-BSW option has fewer seats (55) of the 61 required to form a Majority. CDU will form a coalition government more efficiently as it has many options to partner with, including SPD, the Greens, the Left, and BSW.
Höcke as a threat to AfD leadership
AfD emerged as an ultraconservative anti-EU political force in 2013 and rapidly evolved towards the hard right. However, its leadership are not neo-Nazi as Höcke and his wing and would envisage being in a position to allow negotiations with the CDU.
Despite his convictions by German courts for his nazi preferences, Höcke emerged as the true leader of the party, further leading it to extremism. As a result, AfD was isolated by the European far-right family of Marine Le Pen and forced to form a new group in the European Parliament with extremist parties rejected by the traditional far-rights.
Several in the leadership didn’t favour such an evolution of the party’s position among the European far-right. When the crisis between Le Pen and AfD emerged last January due to a secret meeting in Potsdam about a “re-emigration” project aiming to expel German citizens of immigrant origin, Alice Weidel, AfD’s Chair-woman, ran to Paris to negotiate with the French far-right leader. Weidel and others felt the costs an expulsion from Le Pen’s group Identity and Democracy would imply for the German party.
Similarly, when the Patriots for Europe group was announced in June 2024, AfD expressed its desire to join it. However, the Patriots’ leader rejected the idea. Consequently, AfD found other extremist parties without any real political significance at the European level, rejected by the Patriots, and formed a tinny group of 25 MEPs in the European Parliament, the Europe of Sovereign Nations group.
Höcke will not only drive the party into dangerous and uncharted waters but may also contest AfD’s leadership. Sooner or later, AfD will face the dilemma of a split or further problems with German justice.
BSW options
BSW shares several views with the AfD, a fact that restricts its movement towards partnerships at the European level. Absolutely not a leftist party, its rhetoric is marked by anti-immigration and pro-Kremlin positions. However, its affinity with AfD makes BSW its potential rival. The two parties will soon compete in seeking to attract radicalised nationalist voters.
Is a coalition with AfD in Thuringia—the only state where such an option could exist—beneficial for Sahra Wagenknecht? Such a partnership would severely affect BSW’s reputation, preventing the parties of the constitutional milieu from cooperating with it.
Moreover, taking distances from the AfD could be an asset for BSW in future collaborations at the EU level, mainly the European Parliament.
Sahra Wagenknecht’s views fit with the “authentic” far-right family of Le Pen, the Patriots for Europe group. Of course, other parties with MEPs now stand in the Non-Attached Members’ group at the Parliament, as the SMER party of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico also shares similar views with Le Pen’s group. If and when the BSW will approach the Patriots, it is a matter of time. The lack of a party from Germany is a deficit for the Patriots.
A cordon sanitaire for now
The mainstream parties’ challenge is addressing citizens’ dissatisfaction with federal policies. The three states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg (where elections will be held on September 22) account for just 10% of the nation’s population. Moreover, the communist past still impacts the population.
The constitutional parties — from the CDU to the Greens—are still capable of solving the problems that matter most to voters in Saxony and Thuringia, above all, the lack of confidence in the German state’s efficiency in boosting the economy and well-being of its citizens.
Nevertheless, the parties of the democratic spectrum are the only ones with the potential to offer viable solutions to the problems that emerged in the eastern German states, and they should move in this direction.
