Germany is heading to snap elections on 23 February 2025 after the coalition government of Olaf Scholz collapsed as a compromise between opposition parties and the government. Nevertheless, this will be made possible after an early confidence vote on 16 December, which the government expects to lose, prompting early elections. According to the polls, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Friedrich Merz will comfortably win the polls.
However, Chancellor Scholz’s disagreement with US President Joe Biden‘s permission for Ukrainians to use US-made long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russian territory won him unexpected “support” from the extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
The latter is under surveillance by the security authorities as it hosts several extremist elements. Moreover, its racist positions and the acute Russophilia prevent any other party from partnering with it, as recently we saw in recent state elections in east landers of Germany.
CDU Merz repeatedly emphasised that his party will never form a coalition with the AfD extremists.
“I want to make it clear to the AfD: Neither before, nor after, nor at any other time will there be any cooperation between my group and their people. No matter how many people they will sit within the next German Bundestag. There will be no cooperation at any time,” a few days ago reiterated in a speech in Bundestag.
Additionally, Merz has a more decisive strategy concerning the war in Ukraine. A few weeks ago, the CDU leader proposed an ultimatum to Moscow, after which Ukraine could receive the much-desired Taurus missiles—powerful weapons that Scholz has refused to supply. Merz also called on Europe to take a leadership role in the pro-Kyiv coalition, especially given the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump‘s presidency.
Thus, the AfD, which is openly pro-Russia and opposes German help to Ukraine, would prefer a government that hesitates to take the political risk of a more engaged strategy.
Rumours in the media last week indicated several AfD MPs’ preference for maintaining the actual Scholz government, which could be expressed during December’s vote of confidence. After all, a successful conservative government will further isolate AfD.
An interview of the AfD co-leader Tino Chrupala with Die Weltwoche on 16 November supported these rumours.
Chrupala posted on X a significant phrase of his interview: «I consider Olaf #Scholz to be much less dangerous than Friedrich #Merz when it comes to the #Ukraine war».
