After the European Commission’s President diplomatically congratulated Donald Trump on his electoral victory, the EU is preparing to face the implications of this victory. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz congratulated Trump but emphasised the challenges posed by his “America First” protectionist trade policy and isolationist rhetoric. The two leaders plan to coordinate their response.
“The European Union must stand close together and act united,” Scholz told reporters, adding that he and Macron were coordinating closely with other EU leaders.
Macron said on X that Berlin and Paris would work for a united, stronger Europe.
“I have just spoken with the Chancellor @OlafScholz. In this new context, we will work towards a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe. By cooperating with the United States of America and defending our interests and our values”.
However, achieving European unity will be challenging. Paris and Berlin have held differing views on various issues in recent years, such as how to finance increased defence spending and trade, including tariffs on China’s electric cars.
Additionally, both President Macron and Chancellor Scholz are facing mounting pressure at home, where the far-right is conducting a large-scale disinformation campaign with backing from the Kremlin. Analysts suggest that the EU may encounter difficult times ahead, as it is unprepared for the economic impact of higher tariffs, a significant shift in support for Ukraine, and potential crises among NATO allies due to US-led defence spending ultimatums. Furthermore, after years of political interference, some EU member states, particularly Hungary, have aligned themselves with Moscow and Beijing, which harms European interests.
The potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency could pose a wide range of problems for the EU, including security issues, threats to democratic principles, trade wars, and climate change denial.
Last month, Trump stated that the European Union would be penalised for not purchasing enough American exports if he were to win the election. Consequently, trade relations with the new US administration could face significant challenges. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated the former Republican president on his victory but emphasised that avoiding trade wars would benefit the US and Europe.
“The European Union and the United States are more than just allies. We are bound by a true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens. This bond runs deep, rooted in our shared history, commitment to freedom and democracy, and common goals of security and opportunity for all,” she highlighted.
“Millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment on each side of the Atlantic depend on the dynamism and stability of our economic relationship,” von der Leyen added.
Donald Trump’s intention to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries and a 60% duty on imports from China would disrupt global supply chains, significantly impacting EU economies. Furthermore, Trump’s promise to alter US foreign policy regarding Ukraine could lead to increased support for Russia’s aggressive actions, resulting in heightened threats to the EU and its member states. In short, Russia’s disinformation campaigns and European interference will likely escalate.
Trump’s fixation on getting allies to increase their NATO spending could compel Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security, meaning the EU will need to invest more in defence.
Additionally, Trump’s victory might enhance the appeal of far-right movements in Europe. With France approaching presidential elections in 2027, Marine Le Pen is expected to leverage her connections with the American far-right. Poland will also face critical presidential elections in 2025, occurring in a climate marked by hybrid threats from Russia and efforts by ultraconservatives and far-right groups to benefit from Trump’s presidency. The extremist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) would similarly gain from Trump’s re-election.
Whether European leaders were prepared for Trump’s return remains to be seen. Nonetheless, the EU must take the risks associated with this electoral outcome seriously and find a way to respond swiftly.
