Before the parliamentary election run-off in France on Sunday, a new opinion poll suggests that the far-right National Rally party is not likely to win an absolute majority. While Marine Le Pen‘s party is projected to win the most seats compared to other parties, it is expected to fall short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.
Following the first round, democratic parties formed a “Republican front.” In the past few days, more than 200 candidates from various political parties withdrew from the three-way second round, clearing the way for the candidate with the best chance of defeating the RN in their district.
Toluna Harris Interactive, in partnership with Challenges, M6, and RTL, conducted an online voting intention barometer from July 2 to 3 after applications for the second round in the prefecture were submitted.
The poll predicts that the National Rally and its allies could win between 190 and 220 seats. The New Popular Front is expected to form a group of 159 to 183 deputies, while the Ensemble coalition is projected to constitute the third group in the National Assembly with 110 to 135 seats.
More than 4 out of 10 French people believe that none of these political parties will have an absolute majority in the National Assembly. In contrast, 35% (69% among their voters) believe that the National Rally will achieve it. The RN has stated that it would not govern if it did not gain the absolute majority.
