A shift to the right is all but guaranteed for the next European Parliament, making it sure that the new head of the European Commission will come from the conservative camp, despite the major political rifts between the various European right-wing parties.
This scenario is highlighted in the latest Euronews Super Poll from the Euronews Poll Centre, one of the latest before the European election on June 8-9. According to the poll the centre-right and the far-right are going to win, with the liberal-democrats likely falling down considerably across the bloc.
The first party in Europe should be once again the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), followed by the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), closely followed by the right-wing nationalists of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). The far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) is also set to win big, thanks to its probable exploit in France, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) is leading the polls. Also, Dutch ID member Party for Freedom (PVV), Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and Romania’s Right Alternative (AD) are leading the polls in their countries.
The ID will also be boosted by a good result from Germany, where Alternative for Germany (AfD) is set for a good result. However, the status of the party within the European alliance is feeble, after the main electoral candidate Maximilian Krah said in an interview with Italian newspaper La Repubblica that “never say that anyone who wore an SS uniform was automatically a criminal,” prompting a suspension but not his expulsion. Krah is set to win a set in the next European parliament, but the damage is done and is straining relationship with the rest of the alliance, especially with France’s RN.
ID is also creating issues in other European parties. The liberal alliance Renew is set to expel its Dutch member, Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) after it agreed to form a coalition government with Geert Wilder’s PVV. Renew is set for a major drop in seats, as Emmanuel Macron’s party Renaissance is currently falling in polls compared to the previous election.
The other major gainer is the ECR. The conservative group will get good results in Italy with ruling party Brothers of Italy (FdI), in Poland with Law and Justice (PiS) and in Spain with Vox. Recently at a rally in Madrid, Giorgia Meloni and Marine Le Pen spoke in conciliatory terms, opening the door for post-election collaborations. They may have a chance to influence the appointment of the head of the Commission and other key figures.
However, divisions remain. The EPP is mostly pro-European and many parties within it will struggle to be in an alliance with the ECR and ID, where most of the parties are eurosceptic and ultra-nationalists. Differences in key European policies could prevent a full conservative coalition to ever make grounds.
In addition, any candidate appointed for the Commission has to be approved by national governments and with France, Germany and Spain governed by liberal or centre-left governments is hard to imagine their approval of candidates supported by parties on the other side of the political spectrum.
