Romania may be on the verge of a seismic shift to its defence and security policies, with possible NATO repercussions, in case far-right independent candidate Calin Georgescu (Călin Georgescu) will win the presidency in the upcoming second turn election on 8 December.
Georgescu came on top of the first round of presidential elections two weeks ago in a shocking result that was highly contested by opposition parties. There were calls of Russian interference and accusations of social media manipulation by TikTok, leading to an official recount of the vote. Romanian authorities cleared the result of the election last Monday.
The opponent of Georgescu is Elena Lasconi from centrist party Save Romania Union (USR). However, it may be difficult for her to beat Georgescu. Polls shows that 40% of voters are still undecided, but Georgescu has a support of nearly 60% of Romanians. Sergiu Miscoiu political scientist from Babes-Bolyai University told Reuters that “barring a great mobilisation by the undecided, he will win.”
Under Romanian constitution, the president has a semi-executive role and has a strong role in security and defence issues, as well as appointing governments. A major decision Georgescu may have a role in concerns NATO’s anti-missile shield in the country, which he called a “national shame” in public. During the campaign he hinted that “everything will be assessed, what are the advantages, what could be the advantages in the future, what has happened so far.”
The anti-missile shield is located at the air base in Deveselu in the south of the country and hosts US Aegis Ashore missile defence system with Romanian and American forces. The base is set for expansion and to become NATO’s biggest European base. A re-evaluation of it could be a shock for NATO and a definite U-turn from Romania, a country that so far was very vocally pro-NATO.
The changes may not stop at the base, as Georgescu stated that he will not care about respecting the 2% defence spending commitment of NATO, saying to Reuters that “the concern of the Romanian people is to be happy. They cannot be happy spending money on other things. If NATO is defensive, then it should remain defensive. I believe one thing – Romania has an obligation to no one.”
Previously Georgescu said that he does not want Romania to leave NATO, but added that “I want to take a stand, not kneel, not take everything. As I said, everything must be done with our national interest in mind.”
Among the other changes that Georgescu may push for if elected a momentous one is the pledge to stop Ukrainian grain exports from passing Romania. Ukraine used the port of Constanta to export grain during the two years of wars. Romania also helped the country with military aid, training Ukrainian fighter pilots and donating a Patriot air defence battery. However, Georgescu vowed to Reuters to end everything if elected.
One of the first order of business for the new Romanian president will be to appoint a new government, following parliament election last week. The ruling Social Democrat (PSD) party came out on top with 22.6% of votes, but far-right parties made strides. PSD and Lasconi’s USR may struggle to find common ground for a coalition government.
