Whoever wins Austria’s general election on Sunday will face mounting pressure to ease the nation’s dependence on Russian gas imports and to diversify its energy supply base at a time when the national economy is backsliding. No single party is expected to gain an outright majority. The latest opinion polls show the far-right opposition Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) holding a narrow lead. Should it top the polls on Sunday, FPÖ’s pro-Russia leaning could slow the pace of Austria’s energy transition.
Austria’s economy is shrinking, with inflation outpacing the European Union (EU) average. While the EU looks to phase out Russian gas by 2027, Austria still remains heavily reliant on energy imports from Russia. In July, Austria was drawing 83% of its imported gas from Russia, whereas the proportion of EU gas imported from Russia in 2023 had fallen to 15%.
The Greens, a junior partner in the current government, have led efforts to tap alternative supplies, while Chancellor Karl Nehammer‘s conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) is committed to reducing the country’s reliance on Russian gas.
The energy ministry says it has taken steps to make Austria independent of Russian gas in the long-term, citing the current “high dependence” on such supplies as “a major economic and security risk for Austria”. The ministry asserts that there is enough import capacity in the country for non-Russian gas via Germany and Italy and that its gas storage facilities are more than 90% full. An official statement from the ministry says it is “essential for our country’s security to further reduce gas consumption and stop buying Russian gas.”
Vienna’s main power utility company, Wien Energie, has declared it will move away from Russian gas as of next year. However, overshadowing this is Ukraine’s refusal to extend a deal with Gazprom beyond the end of this year that transits Russian gas to Austria. This could result in wholesale gas prices jumping by about 20% for two to six months.
Despite a narrowing lead, the FPÖ insists Russian gas must remain part of Austria’s energy mix. FPÖ’s support hovers between 27-29%, according to the latest polls, its lead reduced to no more than one point over the ÖVP, with indications that three other parties are positioned to take around 10% of the vote. Their refusal to join any coalition headed by FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl opens the way for the formation of coalitions determined to keep Moscow at arm’s length. The current expectation is that Sunday’s election will result in a coalition featuring ÖVP.
One way or another, the new government will have to cope with an economy that analysts say will shrink by 0.7% this year. Both the FPÖ and the ÖVP are pledging tax cuts, while the centre-left Social Democrats, third in the polls, are proposing wealth and inheritance taxes.
