Russian-linked online disinformation networks are spreading bogus spy agency warnings about terrorist attacks in Germany in the lead up to the elections there this month. According to cybersecurity experts, the aim is to spread fear and distrust and by inhibiting voter turnout increase the numbers voting by mail, which is more vulnerable to challenges for fraud. Baseless rumours have also been disseminated to discredit conservative leader Friedrich Merz, who currently heads the opinion polls, with the Moscow-friendly, far right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) in second place.
The unsettling narratives are aimed at an alarmed public that is already on edge following a number of high-profile attacks by foreigners that resulted in many deaths, among them a car that rammed into a crowded Christmas market and a stabbing attack in which a child was killed. On Wednesday, an Afghan asylum seeker drove a car into a crowd in Munich, injuring at least 28 people. The motive has yet to be determined.
Experts working with the Robert Bosch Foundation, a human rights organisation, enabled the Reuters new agency to review their full database of messages and confirm the thrust of the posts. One post contained a fake video purportedly from broadcaster France 24 relaying a French security service warning to avoid public places in Germany due to the risk of terrorist attacks. Most originated on X, and contained videos which were then shared on other social media. According to the researchers, the posts have been interacted with some 2.5 million times. X did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the posts.
The volume tripled this week when the Storm 1516 group joined the campaign, which until then had been dominated by the Doppelganger and Matryoshka disinformation networks. Moscow has repeatedly denied that it operates disinformation networks.
According to misinformation specialist Felix Kartte at the Mercator Institute, the messaging campaign seems designed to help AfD even though the party was not endorsed specifically. “A scared society is much more sensitive to authoritarian narratives”, he said.
Discouraging voter turnout could reduce the conservatives’ lead, while it also serves to make it more difficult to form a stable coalition. This would increase AfD’s chances to link with another party opposed to arming Ukraine, allowing them, should they hold enough seats between them, to disrupt parliament.
The investigative portal Correctiv says it has identified at least a dozen narratives pushed by the networks. These include unfounded abuse allegations against the Greens leader Robert Habeck and fabricated claims that 1.9 million Kenyans are soon to arrive in Germany.
By spreading the message that there could be attacks, including on polling stations, “the goal (seems to be) to drive more Germans to vote by mail, giving pro-Russian parties ammunition to claim fraud”, one researcher surmised.
