This month, Ukraine announced that it will not extend the contract allowing the Russian energy giant Gazprom to use a transit pipeline through its territory. The current deal expires on 31 December. The Slovak government reacted quickly, threatening to cut off power supplies from Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico also criticised the EU’s support for Ukraine in an open letter dated 28 December. In response, Poland offered to assist Ukraine if Slovakia goes through with its threat.
Fico aligns with Putin
On 22 December, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss gas supplies. This meeting occurred after Kyiv announced it would not extend the deal for transiting Russian gas to Europe. Following his visit, Fico appeared to align more closely with the Kremlin regarding the invasion of Ukraine.
On 27 December, Fico announced that his government would consider potential reciprocal measures against Ukraine, including the possibility of halting electricity supplies if Ukraine ceases the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia after 1 January. “After 1 January, we will assess the situation and explore the options for reciprocal measures against Ukraine,” Fico stated in a video address. “If necessary, we will stop the electricity supplies that Ukraine relies on during grid outages.” Fico threatened.
While the European Union has actively sought to reduce its dependency on Russian fossil fuels following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, several countries, including Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria, continue to rely heavily on Russian gas. Slovakia has a long-term contract with Gazprom and estimates that alternative transit arrangements could incur an additional €220 million in fees.
Since taking office, Fico has turned Slovakia’s foreign policy, halting military aid to Ukraine and adopting rhetoric more aligned with Russia, raising concerns among Kyiv and its European partners. Additionally, during a visit to China on 1 November, Fico met with President Xi Jinping and signed a “strategic partnership” similar to one Hungary had signed in May 2024.
Fico’s calculations
In an open letter to the European Commission published on 29 December, PM Fico responded to Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko‘s announcement, stating that Ukraine would seek a response regarding the potential suspension of electricity supplies, criticising Ukraine’s unilateral decision to stop gas transit to Slovakia.
Fico urged EU leaders to address this “unprecedented situation” urgently. He estimated that the halt in transit would cost European citizens and businesses tens of billions of euros annually, while Ukraine would lose nearly 800 million euros. Slovakia would face losses exceeding 400 million euros in transit fees and over a billion euros due to rising gas prices.
The day before, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had accused Fico of “opening a second energy front” at the request of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Poland’s solidarity
Poland is prepared to increase its energy production and exports to Ukraine if Slovakia’s prime minister follows through on his threat to cut off the country’s electricity supply, a high-ranking Polish official told Bloomberg news agency on the condition of anonymity. A separate source familiar with the situation indicated to Bloomberg that if Prime Minister Fico makes good on his threat, Kyiv may also halt the transit of Russian oil.
Slovakia’s former foreign minister, Miroslav Wlachovský, praised Warsaw’s willingness to support Kyiv.
“Poland is ready to supply Ukraine with more electricity if Fico stops the flow of electricity through our network. Congratulations to the geniuses of geopolitics, foreign policy and good neighbourly relations – Fico, Blanár and Blah! Slovakia will have fewer friends and less money,” former FM Wlachovský posted on X on 29 December.
