As the day of the general elections in Lithuania approaches, the country faces a rise in antisemitism. In addition, a recent poll indicates that only one of the government coalition parties will overcome the 5% bar, making after-election negotiations for the new government difficult. A stable government in Lithuania, committed to respecting EU values and the country’s international political and defence duties, is pivotal for the Baltic region and, by extension, for the EU.
During a ceremony to honour the victims of the Lithuanian Jews’ genocide at the Paneriai Memorial on 23 September, Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė called on the society to unite against the antisemitic forces that are active in the country.
Lithuanian elections for the Seimas, the national parliament, are scheduled to be held by 13 October 2024, with a second round on 27 October 2024. The current Government relies on a three-party coalition between the EPP-member Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) and two ALDE members, the Liberal Movement (LRLS) and the Freedom Party (LP).
To make the coalition possible, the three parties performed well in the 2020 parliamentary elections and obtained the necessary majority of 71 seats in the 141-seat Seimas.
The TS-LKD, led by the foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, came first with 25.77% and won 50 seats, while its partners LP and LS obtained 9.45% and 7.04%, respectively, with 11 seats the first and 13 the second.
The coalition government reiterated Lithuania’s commitment to the EU values, advanced its defence relations with partners within NATO and emerged as one of the most fervent supporters of Ukrainian independence.
However, the current political situation in Lithuania has changed according to the polls. A poll by the Baltijos tyrimai (Baltic Research) commissioned by Elta shows only five parties overcoming the 5% bar. Two of the current coalition parties will remain out of Seimas.
The government’s leading party, TS-LKD, comes third with 9%. The Freedom Party has 2.4% and the Liberal Movement 4.1%, which means the two liberal parties will not win any seats in the next Parliament.
The PES-member Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP), a historical party in the country’s politics, is leading the polls with 15.5% and his leader Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, a MEP, will probably set the conditions for the new coalition government. A possible ally could be the Union of Democrats “For Lithuania” (DSVL), led by former Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, a member of the Greens, which the poll gives 9.2%.
The Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union (LVŽS), led by Ramūnas Karbauskis, was a member of the Greens until the 2024 European elections, but it joined the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in July. According to the poll, it arrives fourth with 8.3%. Despite its affiliation with the ECR, the LVŽS has not positioned itself about Russia’s threats against Lithuania.
The Labour Party (DP), founded in 2003 by the Russian-born millionaire Viktor Uspaskich, is a controversial party. While claiming to be a social-democratic party, it was a member of the Renew group until 2021. However, the Renew Europe group at the European Parliament expelled its leader, Uspaskich, due to his homophobic comments. Moreover, DP promotes pro-Russian and anti-migrant rhetoric.
In December 2020, Lithuanian authorities began investigating Viktor Uspaskich for advertising mineral water as a COVID-19 protection. In 2006, the party was involved in a scandal for concealing millions of euros. Uspaskich fled to Russia but was arrested in 2007. A recent poll indicated the party’s support had also doubled to 7.7%.
The rise of a newly established party in the polls raised concerns in Lithuania. Remigijus Žemaitaitis founded the Dawn of Nemunas (NA) after he was expelled from the conservative and Eurosceptic Freedom and Justice party for making antisemitic statements. In May 2023, Žemaitaitis published antisemitic comments on Facebook, claiming that “the Jews and Russians” oppressed ethnic Lithuanians during the Second World War and were responsible for the 1944 massacre of the village of Pirčiupiai. Lithuanian politicians, the Lithuanian Jewish community, and numerous ambassadors to Lithuania harshly criticised these comments. The office of the Prosecutor General launched an ongoing investigation into Žemaitaitis’ actions, accusing him of inciting hatred towards the Jewish people. In addition, on 3 September, he stated that he is waiting for the day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will sentenced to death for his actions against Palestinians.
The Dawn of Nemunas party has gained popularity in recent polls (8%) and could emerge as kingmaker in coalition talks if the three major parties, LSDP, DSVL, and TS-LKD, do not find a consensus. The Baltic region faces several challenges threatening its economy, defence, and territorial integrity.
