Portugal seemed immune to the virus of the far right. However, in next Sunday’s snap general elections, a far-right party, Chega! (Enough), could threaten Portuguese Democracy and, as a consequence, European stability. The rise of the far-right roughly coincides with the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, which marked the end of the 40-year-old António Salazar‘s dictatorship.
The two-party system that Portugal experienced for decades seems close to an end. The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) and centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) have alternated in power for decades. However, their rule is associated with charges of graft and cronyism. Moreover, Sunday’s national elections are unlikely to produce a clear winner. The two major parties are expected to collect most of the 10.8 million potential votes. On the other hand, Chega! is expected to get 15% to 20% of the vote and probably become kingmaker.
In a country with severe corruption issues and the poorest economy in Western Europe, Chega! has considerable penetration into rural voters, the youth, and low-income citizens. In addition, it is a fervent ally of Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini, and after the next European elections in June, it will join their Group in the European Parliament.
Anger over corruption
Socialist leader António Costa resigned after eight years as prime minister amid last November’s corruption investigation. However, he hasn’t been accused of any crime. The police found 75,800 euros in cash stuffed in envelopes on bookshelves when they searched the prime minister’s chief of staff office last year.
Corruption is a high-profile issue in the election.
A court in Lisbon has ordered that José Sócrates, a former Socialist prime minister, should stand trial for corruption. According to prosecutors, Sócrates allegedly received around 34 million euros through graft, fraud and money laundering during his time in power from 2005 to 2011. However, corruption issues are not limited to the SP, as the centre-right PSD also faces graft investigations. Recently, two prominent PSD officials had to resign due to a corruption scandal in the Madeira Islands. Interestingly, the scandal broke the same day the party put up an anti-corruption billboard in Lisbon under the slogan “It can’t go on like this.”
Portugal’s economy
Portugal’s economy is also in ruins. Although European Union development aid disbursed tens of billions of euros in recent decades, it remains one of Western Europe’s poorest countries. In 2022, the average monthly wage before tax was around 1,400 euros. Close to 3 million Portuguese workers earn less than 1,000 euros a month. The average old-age pension is around 500 euros a month. Inflation is high, and a harsh housing crisis has made prices rise disproportionately. A «golden visa» programme that attracted wealthy citizens from Brazil, Angola and other former Portuguese colonies aggravated the situation.
The Chega! rise
Corruption and poverty push many citizens to Chega. In a period the far-right parties increase their influence in several EU member states – such as France, Spain, and Austria, among many others – Chega may end up in the role of kingmaker if, as expected, the main parties need the support of other parties to form a government. Chega was founded by dissidents from the PSD five years ago. In the 2019 elections, it won its first seat in Portugal’s 230-seat Parliament, to jump to 12 seats in 2022. Now polls suggest it could more than double that number this time. Like several other far-right parties – such as Vox in Spain or the AfD in Germany – Chega has used social media to reach younger voters. Opinion surveys indicate that the party could win between 15% and 20% of the vote nationwide. Party leader André Ventura, a former sports commentator, is exploiting public disenchantment with the current political landscape. “For 50 years, the Portuguese have voted for the same parties, and nothing has changed,” he recently stated. Ventura promises higher pensions and increased taxes for banks and oil companies. He demonises the European Commission and declares his desire for the EU to be a grouping of sovereign states with no federal obligations. Part of Chega’s strategy involves anti-immigration rhetoric with racist overtones. One of his most controversial proposals is chemical castration for certain sex offenders. However, Portugal has one of the most minor immigration problems in the EU. According to EU data, Portugal had the European Union’s second-lowest ratio of immigrants per 1,000 people in 2021, less than half that of Germany, the Netherlands, or neighbouring Spain.
Towards a viable coalition?
According to the polls, the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by the mainstream opposition PSD, garners the most votes. However, it will probably fall short of a parliamentary majority.
Portuguese politicians ignore the culture of the coalition governments. Thus, AD will need the support of a third party – Chega – to form a government. Last month, Ventura told Reuters Chega would demand to be part of a right-wing coalition government in exchange for parliamentary support. Ventura said he would drop some of Chega’s more controversial proposals, such as chemical castration for some sex offenders if this would lead to a governing alliance with other right-of-centre parties.
However, AD has rejected any agreement with Chega so far. If AD were to form a minority government, it might not survive the first crash test later this year; its first budget will contradict Chega’s promises to his voters.
