Austria will hold legislative elections on September 29, 2024, to elect the 28th National Council, the lower house of Austria’s bicameral parliament. The constant rise of the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) raises concerns about the future of the rule of law in the country and the creation of an anti-EU and pro-Russia camp in the central European region. Already, anti-EU and pro-Russian governments exist in Hungary and Slovakia, putting at risk the EU cohesion and security. Austria is in real peril!
After Marine Le Pen‘s French National Rally party was defeated in the recent French legislative elections, Austria emerged as the next critical battleground for the EU’s security and European values.
FPÖ is among the most successful European far-right parties. Founded by two former members of the Waffen SS in 1956, it was a member of Le Pen’s Identity and Democracy (ID) group and is now a founding member of the Patriots for Europe.
However, mainstream parties cooperated with it on the national (the Austrian People’s Party—ÖVP) and regional (the Socialists SPÖ) levels.
Despite FPÖ being at the centre of a critical for Austria’s security scandal, now leads the polls. According to a recent opinion poll, it attracts 27% of preferences, while in 2019, it scored just 16.2%. Its former partner in collation governments, ÖVP, declined to 24% (from 37,5% in 2019). The Socialists SPÖ have 21%, the Greens 9%, and the Liberals of NEOS 11%. Thus, the risk is to have a coalition between the far-right and a mainstream political party led by the FPÖ. An FPÖ Chancellor in Austria!
It is not difficult to understand what such a perspective means for Austrian democratic institutions and the security of the EU. As Chancellor, FPÖ’s leader Herbert Kickl, who often declared his admiration for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, will partner with Hungary and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, forming an “Axes” against the EU and in the service of Vladimir Putin.
The Ibiza scandal, a security matter
In 2017, Heinz-Christian Strache, the FPÖ’s leader, became the vice-chancellor in the coalition government led by Sebastian Kurz, which included the ÖVP and FPÖ. However, in May 2019, a scandal known as the Ibiza scandal emerged, putting Austria’s security at risk and resulting in the collapse of the coalition government. The scandal involved a video in which Strache was seen offering to enhance his party’s political influence in exchange for assistance with public tenders and the acquisition of influential media from someone claiming to represent the Russian government. This raised severe concerns about the FPÖ’s ties with Russia during their time in the coalition government.
FPÖ’s connections with Russia
FPÖ has had close ties with the regime of Vladimir Putin since the mid-2000s. The party has repeatedly expressed loyalty and friendship to Russia, co-organising various events with Russian entities. FPÖ members have opposed EU sanctions against Russia, and some have visited Crimea for potential investments. In 2016, an FPÖ candidate won the first round of the presidential elections, and the party’s relations with Russia became official. Then FPÖ and ‘Yedinaya Rossiya,’ the party of Putin, signed a cooperation agreement, and despite public distancing, this agreement was renewed until 2026. During the coalition government between ÖVP and FPÖ, the far-right’s relations with Russia became a serious concern. Herbert Kickl, the interior minister then and now the party’s leader, attempted to control Austria’s intelligence service (BVT). As a result, essential documents were declared lost, raising fears that they may have ended up in Russian hands.
Is Austria a centre for Russian spies?
On July 14, 2023, the Financial Times published an article titled “Vienna’s spying problem spins out of control.” The article cited European sources suggesting that Austria has become a hub for Russian espionage, drawing criticism from allies. Following a Russian espionage scandal in early April 2024, Austria’s Chancellor called for improved security measures. Russia is also expected to support FPÖ in its electoral campaign by spreading disinformation.
Why is Austria’s election result so significant for the EU?
As FPÖ is projected to be the first party after the September 29 elections, in case of a coalition government, it could demand the position of the Chancellor. Moreover, its leader Kickl repeatedly declared that he plans to implement Orbán’s programme.
What the implementation of this programme could mean for the rule of law in Austria and the EU’s cohesion?
With an electoral law reform, Viktor Orbán reduced the number of lawmakers and kept his rule over the country. He orchestrated the size of all significant media by his proxies. Thus, he restricted the freedom of the press to minimum levels. The Hungarian TV channels spread propaganda reminding the period of the communist regime. Orbán undermined the independence of the Judiciary. He promoted a Russian-inspired law against imaginary “foreign agents”, further restricting political freedoms. He also attacked the NGO concept, accusing several of them of conspiring against Hungary. The Hungarian Prime Minister attacked academic freedom, forcing, among others, the Central European University (CEU) to leave Budapest for Vienna in September 2019. Orbán anti-immigration policies resulted in inhumane conditions in refugee centres and racist behaviour against asylum seekers, including children. The Budapest government also promotes anti-LGBTI and anti-Roma discrimination in the country.
A coalition government with the far-right party as the majority partner will also undermine the EU foreign policy, especially targeting Ukraine. The FPÖ’s narrative suggests that the war in Ukraine is a struggle between opposing sides pursuing clashing agendas rather than a war of aggression launched by a regional power against its smaller neighbour. According to this view, Austria should remain neutral. The party criticised Brussels’ sanctions against Russia, emphasising the damage to the Austrian economy caused by increasing inflation and energy prices. The party directed its ire at the United States and the Biden administration, claiming that Washington stood to gain the most from the conflict, aiming to weaken Russia and make Europe more dependent on the USA. Herbert Kickl promised that Austria would stop allocating money to Ukraine if his party came to power after the parliamentary elections.
However, FPÖ gave a picture of its plans for Austria during the coalition government. In April 2018, an FPÖ lawmaker, a member of Österreichischer Rundfunk’s (ORF), threatened to dismiss foreign correspondents who “do not behave correctly” because he disagreed with their reports on the election in Hungary. Deutsche Welle, Germany’s international broadcaster, reported that Steger’s attack marks the latest escalation in a month-long feud between the broadcaster and FPÖ. Also, in April 2018, FPÖ threatened the 18,500 Austrian citizens who also hold Turkish citizenship – a violation of Austria’s nationality laws – to strip them of their Austrian citizenship and force them to leave the country.
In March 2018, a protest against rising discrimination and racism in Austria under the coalition government of ÖVP and FPÖ drew several thousand people to the streets of Vienna. Protesters warned Austria could develop into a “guided democracy, in the style of Orbán”.
A gloomy perspective: An anti-EU camp
Thus, an FPÖ-led coalition government would add the region of another problem for the EU cohesion. Austria would join the camp of the anti-European and pro-Russian governments of Hungary and Slovakia; Fico’s government plans to introduce strict laws—similar to those of Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin—concerning the freedom of the press, NGOs, and LGBTI people. We should also consider an eventual return of the populist ANO party in the Czech Republic, a founding member of the far-right Patriots for Europe group, to power in the 2025 elections.
Thus, a larger government coalition is needed, comprising the parties of the actual alliance, ÖVP and the Greens, and the Socialists and Liberals, to keep FPÖ out of government. The parties of the democratic families in Austria have a critical responsibility for their country’s and our Union’s future.
